Updated: Thu Jul. 09 2009 08:02:52

CTV.ca News Staff

Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page says Canada is "probably" better placed to deal with an economic recovery than other industrialized countries.

Page said the current economic situation is unusual because all countries are facing a recession.

"Our fundamentals are better for the most part in terms of balance sheets," Page told CTV's Canada AM on Thursday. "Even fiscal balance sheets going in are better so we are probably better placed to deal with recovery going forward."

On Wednesday, Page released a report showing Canada's federal deficit will balloon to a cumulative $155.9 billion over the next five years, and the nation will remain in the red until at least 2014.

The report's predictions are far less rosy than those put forward by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty. He predicted a $100 billion cumulative deficit over five years, ending with a $700 million surplus in 2014.

"The forecast that Minister Flaherty released in January was a number of months ago and the environment has changed," Page said Thursday.

"...It's an updated forecast, it's slightly weaker and I think that's reflected in the fact that the deficit projections are higher."

The report predicts that despite the government's stimulus plans, 1.2 million Canadian jobs will be shed over the next two years.

Although the Tories said last month that 80 per cent of stimulus measures were already being implemented, Page said most of the money hasn't really "flown yet."

"Those shovels aren't in the ground. It's only over the summer time and as we move to the fall that we'll see that stimulus actually have an impact on the economy," he said.

The report also predicts Canada's GDP growth will fall further in 2009 and 2010, before beginning to recover in 2011.

Page said there is much debate among private sector economists about how strong the economic recovery will be.

Most frightening for fiscal conservatives is that Page predicts that in five years Canada will have a permanent structural deficit in place.

The Tories have for months insisted that the government had not created a structural deficit -- one that cannot be erased by economic growth alone.

"Mr. Harper has told Canadians that there will not be a structural deficit," Liberal MP Scott Brison told CTV News. "Kevin Page, the parliamentary budget officer, is saying that that's absolutely wrong. I trust Kevin Page more than I trust Stephen Harper when it comes to the numbers."

The report acknowledges there is a high degree of uncertainty in estimating potential outputs and budget balances, but comes to the conclusion that the budget "is not structurally balanced over the medium term."

Please Add Comments

Tom-Eric
Some point out that while we're in one of the best positions when compared to other nations we shouldn't be complaining.

I'm not complaining about our situation. I'm glad we're on top.

What I'm complaining about is the blatant lack of transparency and inaccurate information being footed in our Country.

80% implemented, but we never were told how much was spent (ie. how much was spent on project currently being undertaken, in other words... how much of the stimulus put shovels in the ground.)

That and the "there is no deficit" to "there is one" to "there is a bigger one" to "there will be structural deficit".

It's these sort of shenanigans that piss me off.

Dave in Surrey
Canada is in a better place than the rest of the world due to 13 years of fiscal responsibility by the Liberals...

What has Harper given us? Structural deficit... an ever increasing deficit... No clue about the actual size of the deificit... 9 months ago it was going to be a surplus... Most of the stimulas money hasn't flown yet, even though our government is using our tax money on advertisements saying 80% is spent...

How can anyone support these people... It can only be ideology...

Jay, Ottawa
For those questioning the impartiality of Mr. Page see http://www2.parl.gc.ca/Sites/PBO-DPB/index.aspx?Language=E
for a description of his position.

I'm at a loss though to explain why so many decry his professionalism when so far his forecasts have been proven very prudent and accurate. His job is *to keep the government honest*.

jacques desjardins
Jim in Edmonton:
You talk like horses trot. With your blinders on. Harpie did a wonderful job!!!That's why he's so hated. And enough with the Quebec bashing already.

M. Btok
I am sure that should the worst happen and we end up with Michael Ignatieff winning an election! I know that juging by Liberal budgeting in the past that it will be expensive for Canadians in tough times! On top of that we could end up with Fascism like the Democrat Party ( Liberal ) in the USA! Re:
Is Michael Ignatieff who has spent 30 years in USA and Britain and now attempting to get voted in Canadian politics to the highest seat as Prime Minister! Is he a Bilderberger? Is his politics similar to the Marxist,President of the United States? I am concerned as he does not have a platform,obviously he has a hidden agenda, he has said he has a carbon tax for us! Is it like the lethal "Cap and Trade" Bill passed in America that takes away most of the American citizen's constitutional rights! With these Elitists under the NWO agenda Barack Obama is the closer President to end the Republic of the United States! Is Michael Ignatieff the NWO Elitist's infiltrated Closer with a hidden agenda to be the closer of Democracy for Canada? Anyone that has details or knowledge on Ignatieff's politics please answer this comment, Thank you! It seems everything that we hold dear and our freedoms are being put down in these treacherous times!

Stan Wright
Let's pause to note that the present conservative government had absolutely nothing to do with creating the strong position Canada's finances are now in.

We have Paul Martin and Jean Chretien to thank for that.

paul
I think some people have missed the point of the article being that the government is not telling the truth to Canadians about the state of the economy. I know that dishonesty is no surprise coming from politicians, whether blue or red. It is though refreshing to have Mr Page put some honest prospective into the state of things.

Marius
...Page said the $46 billion the federal government has committed to stimulate the economy won't do much more than "soften" the recession's impact on jobs, incomes and output...Hummm, very interesting !!!!
" Taking the State wherever found, striking into its history at any point, one sees no way to differentiate the activities of its founders, administrators, and beneficiaries from those of a professional-criminal class"
Albert Jay Nock, Our Enemy The State

Marius
...Page said the $46 billion the federal government has committed to stimulate the economy won't do much more than "soften" the recession's impact on jobs, incomes and output...Hummm, very interesting !!!!
" Taking the State wherever found, striking into its history at any point, one sees no way to differentiate the activities of its founders, administrators, and beneficiaries from those of a professional-criminal class"
Albert Jay Nock, Our Enemy The State

memiS
How could Flagherty be so grossly mistaken a few months ago by....$55B and counting? But this Mike Harris left-over had the spine to sneakily attempt to remove the tax benefits to the Opposition parties as well as remove pay equity provisions from women! Clements and Baird should be sending out their resumes soon. Let's sincerely hope that these Ontario Harrisites will not be able to shut Parliament's doors ever again. And Canada's new title: Zimbabwe of the Northern Flakes does not linger on. Banana Republic no more!

MAL of TO
It's an odd numbered day divisible by 3, which according to my calendar of idiot economists says today will be a GOOD economy day. Tomorrow being an even day divisible by 5 means the EI applicants will double in the next year.

A Magic 8-ball can do better than any of these fools in forecasting.

Confused.
OK let me try to get this right.
First there was to be No decicit.
Then they said it was to be 30 Billion.
Adjusted to 50 Billion.
Now they tell us it is going to be 155.9 Billion over the next 5 years.
And that it will be 700 Billion in 2014, 5 years from today.

Harper said, in the last session of parliament, that 80% of the stimulus package has been implemented.
Kevin says that the "shovels are not in the ground" and that the stimulus money has "not Flown Yet"
And that there will be 1.2 Million jobs lost over the next two years.

For the Love of this Country,
Can we have the TRUTH please.

What the "mashed potato" is going on here?

Doug Ont
Great move Kevin.. The Libs are dropping in the polls again. Can't wait for your daily pronouncement tomorrow.
Keep that finger in the wind.

chris Ottawa
Those libs are getting scared!!! They begin to speak durty here!!

Lets go for an election in septembre and lets get ride of those socialist.

John
Page is consistently right, Harper is consistently wrong. Remember his "buying opportunity" last fall and his denial we would even run a deficit?

At this point Page has the credibility. Harper is either dishonest or incompetent. That simple fact is undeniable.

There's no future in feeding off US carcass.
It's over. Get over it. Move on. China is the future.

Red X
Page is better than Harpo OR Flaherty explaining the state of the nation. I guess when you intentionally compare to 6 Other G7 countries it's not that bad... Under Harper CANADA went from be the 8th to now the 11th largest Economy Worldwide.

BTW; People's Republic of China(20% of World) had 4 months of decline but never reached the 6 to qualify for recession will be growing at 8% this and next year...

Jessica
Stu from London -

Can you please tell me what policies you're referring to. Was it Liberal fiscal policies like the GST and FTA/NAFTA? Because those are the most significant and beneficial changes to the Canadian economy in the past 30 years. And the Libs promised to get rid of both! The only Liberal fiscal policy was to dramatically cut transfers to the provinces and starve the Canadian Forces. Chretien et al didn't believe that CF members deserved the best, hence his cancellation of the EH-101 program.

Prof. Pye Chartt
BAD NEWS FOR THE CRAZED CONSERVATIVE HATERS

Official Memo from the Office of the Prime Minister to Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page and Opposition (Liberal) Leader Michael Ignatieff:

"Yo, Kev and Iggy.... Suck it!"

-- As Tina Fey might say

_________________


My favorite part of the economic nonsense driven by our political eggheads continues to be the fact that the economy has stabilized, and improved, in absence of most of the "stimulus" money (much of which wasn't engineered to "stimulate" anything).

We're suckers.

Now, the G8, in foolish desperation, are formulating even bigger plans. Brilliant.

my take on this
As usual lots of halfwit conservative comments.

Canada doesn't need a Prime Minister or a Minister of Finance who are liars.

Thanks to Paul Martin.
Harper and Flaherty didn't perceive the economic downturn as it happened.

Or they lied about it.

KJ in Kingston Ontario
If I see one more of these "Canada is so well off" stories in the days after the stock market has lost another 5% I will scream.... None of these guys have a clue!

Jon H (N.B. Canada)
Comment ref Silva

The spending in Afghanistan is not useless. We are helping out another country to live in a better place. Since weve been there, there have been numerous changes ie schools, burkahs are not mandatory, the list would go on. Do people know that we are re-building their country? Do people know that without our help, Afghan people would be tortured on a regular basis?

Our spending in Afghanistan is not useless.

Pip
Dorward says "Pip:

Read this. Page's report verifies almost nothing Flaherty has said.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090708/PBO_report_090708/20090708?hub=Politics

Amazing how this story is on the same website the same day and somehow you disregard it."

Quite true; but like most posters, all politicians, I write/say what I feel like, and avoid "inconvenient truths"

And no, it does not make me any better than those I criticize.

Mark in Whitby
I haven't seen any slowdown in my area... I'm just east of Toronto Ontario. Home building is going gangbusters. No foreclosures in sight. Resale homes sell quickly - there must have been 10 homes for sale on my street alone this spring, all sold within a couple weeks of being listed. Even according to recent news, compared to a year ago, home sales are up 27%, prices up 2%, and the houses are spending 3% less time on the market:

http://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20090706/to_realestate_090706/20090706/?hub=TorontoNewHome
The article even states that it's a "seller's market".

Everyone in my neighborhood is still doing upgrades, putting in pools, and landscaping. Lots of new cars parked in driveways. The malls are packed, the stores appear to be selling. Traffic is still heavy... they are widening the 401, hwy7, and the 407 expansion has also finally started showing activity. There are lineups in the electronics stores including FutureShop and Bestbuy. Lots of stores with Help Wanted signs on the doors... even the local Tim Hortons coffee shop has a sign on the door saying they will give people an interview on the spot.

My wife is a teacher and the union got a contract for 3%/yr pay increases. The local Police got 3% as well. LCBO is just finishing their contract with all kinds of goodies too

(http://www.opseu.org/lbed/collective.htm). So the governments seem to be handing it out and not laying off either. Toronto public service workers are on strike fighting over ridiculous items like keeping their benefit to bank 18 sicks days per year with no regard to a recession.

Even the cars being built at the local GM plant seem to be selling well:
http://newsdurhamregion.com/article/130165

All seems well in Southern Ontario so far...

FreakAlert
Every country feeds off the US. If the US doesn't recover, Canada doesn't either.

Camilios
"Stu from London", it's proven that taxes cuts are better for an economic recovery. But I think other changes are important too if we want to transform the economy structure for the better.

Response to Jim : By the way "Jim", all provinces try to get more money from the government, not only Québec. This is a recession, wake up. And the prime minister, is leading in the name of everyone even if most of Québécois didn't vote for him -.-

Thomas
Kevin Page says that his report has "HIGH degree of uncertainty in estimating", but that doesn't stop Mr. Scot Brison from being absolutly sure Kevin is right.
With the Liberal party hoping that Canada will do badly for their own self interest they will go to loony lengths to misrepresent anything to say that the Canadian Economy is bad.

Dorward
Pip:

Read this. Page's report verifies almost nothing Flaherty has said.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090708/PBO_report_090708/20090708?hub=Politics

Amazing how this story is on the same website the same day and somehow you disregard it.

Tono
Sure, but will we use that to our advantage?

Or will we simply return to our tradition of hitch-hiking with the U.S. economy?

CC
I think DCR-Toronto is right on with his comment. The more people on the left get, the more they want. There is nothing that the Conservatives can do that would make them say "good job, or well done". It's always "how can we get more". I for one stand up proud and am happy to have Harper and the Conservatives navigating this country right now. I shutter to think of the Liberals taxing us to death and spending like sailors. Even with us sitting in the first place position on the planet, they want to spend more. Then go on to complain how the deficit is getting out of hand. I urge Canadians to open their eyes and see how good we have it, even in these rough times.
Well done Mr. Harper.

Dorward
Gord. Robson, Nova Scotia:
Of course its an estimate... they are all estimates, that's the point of these reports: to estimate.
If estimates weren't required, and if they were facts (not estimates) then there wouldn't be a recession. Common, use your brain.

Pip
Stu from London comments, vis a vis Harper, that " . . . if the guy likes his job enough to betray his own ideas, you can't say he's a good leader." Stu has obviously never had an at-length conversation with any politician, and is unaware that they would do anything to be re-elected or retain power and leadership, including reversing positions and betraying election promises etc. After all, Chrétion did the same with his "it's in the red book" promise to get rid of the GST. But he found that the Tory idea of the GST was too good to throw away.

As for the comments of Mr. Page, they sound remarkably like those made a few weeks - or was it months? - ago by our Fearless Finance Minister. Are Page's comments simply the same story from a different source, a source that liberals are more likely to believe?

Either way, the story is out there again and the crystal ball has once again been polished. Just gaze into it deeply, and focus your thoughts, saying "I believe, I believe . . . "

Dorward
Good for Canada. It is indeed a positive sign to have somebody other than Harps and Flaherty say we are better off than most.
However, this is likely due to the way our economy is structured, as well as the large surplus we had going into the recession (thanks to the budget cutting liberals).
That being said, the Harper government, time after time, has been overly optimistic until being proven wrong. This hasn't happened just once, but several times. And Flaherty's response is always "They're wrong, we're right. They are too negative".
Thus, if we are indeed in a better position than others, continue to tell us this, but don't continue to objectively lie to us about the numbers.
I think this Page fellow should be Finance Minister.

John in Kitchener

Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page says Canada is "probably" better placed to deal with an economic recovery than other industrialized countries.


Memo to Scott Brison:
Please copy!

Keith Fox
Don't worry Canadians Mr.
Page is right; we will have
afull recovery and will be
booming again in 2010. Right
now the western provinces of
Manitoba and Saskatechewan
are booming and looking for
workers right now. I can see
a tremendous future in these
two provinces spurred by the
demand for the resources
these two provinces have for
the new Green economy. If you
have disposable income now is
the time to spend your money
on goods and services to help
the rest of Canada out of the
recession. Canada will be in
good shape next spring and
this is the time for the next
federal election and I hope
we can have a Liberal or
Conservative majority to run
the nation's business in the
time of growth for the start
of the next decade 2010 to 2020.

Rick (Ontario)
All you anti-Harper zealots should stop to think, if the GG had allowed the coalition of idiots to run things, the deficit would be much higher and the only ones getting anything out of it would have been Quebec.
And before the lib sheep bring up how wonderful a job the libs did in balancing the budget please keep in mind that they did it by crippling the provinces by drastically slashing transfer payments and funding for health care & education. If the left didn't insist on so much spending on useless social crap, we wouldn't be in such a hole.

TLB
One of the reasons why Canada is better positioned to recover is that the stimulus money isn't being spent (as it is in the US) on mountains of pork. I, for one, am grateful that the Conservatives are in power right now. I really do believe that if the Liberals or that dreaded "Coalition" were in power, we'd be seeing stimulus money being spent on half-assed schemes that *SOUND* great but ultimately do nothing, long-term, to help the country recuperate.

Dan
Why is it people will completely ignore logic to get their own political bias across? This is a recession and Canada is hurting becuase we are mainly a service and resource based society. If consumers spend less money on services and non-essentials, than the service sector suffers; if resource prices decline, than resource companies make less money. This is not the governments fault whether we have a Liberal, NDP, or Conservative government.

If anyone says we should have a Liberal government in power and none of this would happen, please share with us how they could stimulate the economy without putting the country into deficit; create jobs, in a wrold where jobs are being lost in the millions, and appease all voters at all times without making mistakes or fudging the numbers a little to make themselves look better. This happens in all governments no matter what and to think other wise is sheer stupidity.

Are the conservatives the best option for this coutry right now? No. Could the Liberals do a much better job? No. Will we get through this? Yes. Will I set aside all rationale to make a polticial point? Hope not.

Steve Robinson in Calgary
Here is a scary thought. What would the numbers and projections look like if last winters socialist coalition had got it's way?

Stu from London
Any sort of recovery seen by Canada is not as a result of just the Conservatives, but from previous Liberal government implemented policies, as well. Although, I still claim Harper has turned his back on his conservative idealogy by issuing stimulus instead of tax and program cuts, but hey, if the guy likes his job enough to betray his own ideas, you can't say he's a good leader.

silva
I am not sure what "structural deficit" actually means but I know how to read a P&L sheet. There are two ways to improve the bottom line: cut spending or improve revenues.

As soon as we start cutting the useless spending in Afghanistan in 2011 our bottom line will improve....as simple as that

Laughing in Ontario
Will what will the pompous members of the opposition, including yesteday's comments from Scott Brison, have to say about Page's latest revelations that "Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page says Canada is "probably" better placed to deal with an economic recovery than other industrialized countries. "

Time for a new vote or non-vote to defeat the government? Not!

Gord. Robson, Nova Scotia
After getting everybody all
stirred up, Kevin Page said
"Canadas better placed for economic recovery"!

"The report acknowledges there is a HIGH degree of uncertainty in estimating
potential outputs and budget
balances"

In other words are you saying
Kevin that your report is a guess/estimate?

Scene
This is true just because were a commodity driven country, afterall, our dollar usually follows the price of oil. Although I agree with this I really do hope that as we use our natural resources to make us richer we give back to the enviroment and keep pushing our technologies and sciences to help our enviroment.

DCR-Toronto
Let me get this straight. We are placed in the best position in the world and people still have the gaul to complain. What a bunch of spoiled whiners the left leaning side of this country has become.(Brison and those who think like him) NOTHING is ever good enough. Gimme gimme gimme, more more more.

Jim in Edmonton
The gang of three had better hurry up and dump Harper because once it becomes clearer to Canadians outside Quebec that Mr Harper and his gov't have been doing a good job afterall, they will get re-elected and Mr. Iggy will have to report to Harvard and wite yet another book! Ps. there is no pleasing Quebec now, they have cashed in as much as they can from Harper and are waiting for the next cash cow.