Updated: Fri Mar. 25 2011 18:36:11

ctvwinnipeg.ca

Manitoba isn't expected to be a deciding factor in the federal election, but at least two ridings in Winnipeg are expected to be hotly contested, experts say.

According to a new poll by Probe Research for the Winnipeg Free Press, Winnipeg South is one of a small handful of Manitoba ridings that could be up for grabs.

"If we see any changes it will be in Winnipeg in some of the swing ridings," said Christopher Adams, vice-president of Probe Research. "And we do see the Liberals are holding some of their traditional support in Winnipeg."

In Winnipeg, Conservative support is at 41 per cent compared with 33 per cent for the Liberals, 21 per cent for the NDP and three per cent for the Greens, according to the poll.

Outside of Winnipeg, the Conservatives have 66 per cent of voters' support. The Liberals hold 16 per cent, with 14 per cent supporting the NDP and 4 per cent supporting the Greens, according to the poll.

Jared Wesley, a political scientist with the University of Manitoba, said there seems to be fewer seats in play here in Manitoba this year, than in the last federal election. However, he said Winnipeg North and Winnipeg South are both ridings that will be heavily contested.

But no matter how things play out, Manitoba won't be the kingmaker in this election.

"Ontario, Quebec and possibly B.C. are where the Conservatives need to make gains," he said.

- with a report from CTV's Jon Hendricks

The province-wide survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research via telephone interviews conducted between March 7 and March 23 among a random and representative sampling of 1,000 Manitoba adults. One can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey's population sub-groups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to the sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.