The latest numbers from Probe Research indicate the provincial NDP is bouncing back from a lull in popular support and is now neck and neck with the Conservatives heading toward a fall election.
Since March, the NDP has recovered from trailing 12 points behind the Conservatives in popularity.
The two parties are now tied at 44 per cent of decided voters surveyed, leaving a meager nine per cent for Manitoba Liberals, down from March's 14 per cent. Three percent said they would vote for the Green Party or another party.
"It's very competitive, it's important to point out that the NDP remains strong in the city where there are many more seats than there are in rural Manitoba," said Scott MacKay, president of Probe Research Inc.
MacKay says one advantage the NDP has is that it's currently in power, meaning it can woo voters with spending announcements.
So far this month it has issued 126 press releases and counting.
Come Monday, that'll come to an abrupt stop when election rules prevent anymore government spending until October 5.
Another factor that could be influencing their current popularity: the Jets are back in town.
The ongoing flood fight is likely having an effect as well, said MacKay. And while some in flooded rural areas may not be satisfied with the NDP's handling of the situation, MacKay thinks overall, it's had a positive effect.
"Having the premier experience tonnes of exposure and some of his major ministers getting major exposure, I believe that the net effect of the flood on the NDP has probably been positive, is my sense," he said.
Probe says three-quarters of Winnipeggers believe Manitoba is headed in the right direction.
But MacKay says voters can be supportive of the province's direction and still be in the mood for a change.
That means anything can happen on Oct. 4.
-- with a report from CTV's Laura Lowe
